ABSTRACT
Due to the current Covid-19 pandemic, the scientific community has needed to generate increasingly fine and realistic models to predict the behavior of the virus over the weeks, so that local authorities can make decisions to slow the spread of the virus. The differential equations of delay will be used to capture the incubation cycles of the virus and susceptibility, adjusting the model to the reality of the city of Milagro in Ecuador. These equations are solved using the differential transformation method, a non-traditional numerical method, that takes advantage of its linear properties to find the solution through a Taylor series. Finally you will find the susceptible curve, infected and immunized over time will be found. © 2022 Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
In this work, an analysis of the birth rate and mortality in Venezuela was carried out taking this data, to more than the number of inhabitants, of the year 2019, which is a period that was considered by alterations that were presented in recent months by the presence of COVID-19. This analysis was carried out through the differential equations with delay, applying for resolution the non-standard numerical methods. The proposed model allows to obtain the projection for the following periods, in this case it was applied to obtain the number of inhabitants of the year 2020;MATLAB software was used to run the proposed model and result in the population of Venezuela for later years from 2019. The result obtained by developing the model proposed on the basis of differential equations with delay, allows to analyze the situation of a country or geographical area, in this case Venezuela, according to various factors such as the age of maturity of the population, which was one of the variables that had a considerable impact to obtain the projection of inhabitants. © 2021 Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions. All rights reserved.